Grading Schwellenbach's Stuff

[Deester11]

It’s hard when I go 6 deep in your mom.

Just 6 though? At least it's a quality start. Unless you call me on in relief to give her 9..i mean finish the 9th...

[bravesfanMatt]

Seriously guys. Plz don’t make me go baby on this. Get back to praising SS

[Deester11]

Seriously guys. Plz don’t make me go baby on this. Get back to praising SS

When Matt is the voice of reason.....ugh.

[Enscheff]

MLB pitchers sometimes have good starts even if they don't have top shelf stuff. We saw Elder have an amazing half season based on nothing but smoke, mirrors, and a lot of luck. The results were great, but anyone paying attention to the actual pitch data understood it wasn't real. So while it was awesome to see Schwelly have a great start, it doesn't change much about the tools he has to get hitters out. Guys with pristine command like Maddux, Glavine or Greinke are extremely rare, and the quality of the pitches gives a pitcher more margin for error.

Having said that, I like the pieces Schwelly has to work with more than what Waldrep brings to the table.

[rawwr]

The thing that confuses me about Waldrep's splitter is how bad it's looked. Prior to his MLB debut I feel like it was pretty much a unanimous opinion that his splitter was a legit 80 grade pitch only held back by his lack of command, and given how many people would've seen him pitch at UF and in the CWS, it's hard to square that with the splitter we've seen him throw since he was called up. It makes me wonder if something is off for him and he's capable of more. Definitely unlikely, I just can't wrap my head around that many people seeing his MLB splitter and calling it elite.

[Tapate50]

Agree, the milb whiff rate on that thing was what.. 63%?

[Enscheff]

The thing about the data on Waldrep's split is it represents the average movement. If the split moves unpredictably like a knuckleball, then the average movement of the pitch is irrelevant. If it moves 4" glove-side with 6" of drop on one pitch, then moves 2" arm-side with 2" of drop the next, the unpredictability of the pitch may be what causes it to be effective...just like a knuckleball, and the average movement is a meaningless value.

Pure hypothetical, but something to maybe consider.

[Slippyjms]

The thing about the data on Waldrep's split is it represents the average movement. If the split moves unpredictably like a knuckleball, then the average movement of the pitch is irrelevant. If it moves 4" glove-side with 6" of drop on one pitch, then moves 2" arm-side with 2" of drop the next, the unpredictability of the pitch may be what causes it to be effective...just like a knuckleball, and the average movement is a meaningless value.

Pure hypothetical, but something to maybe consider.

Interesting. So let's say that's the case. Could he make some mechanical or grip adjustments to his other pitches to make them play better or would he need something like another pitch

[Deester11]

Interesting. So let's say that's the case. Could he make some mechanical or grip adjustments to his other pitches to make them play better or would he need something like another pitch

I'm not as much of a savant as most about the data but seeing him in the minors, none of his pitches other than the splitter seemed to be a threat to me. It hasn't had the same shape at all in the majors. I don't know what to think.

[Slippyjms]

I'm not as much of a savant as most about the data but seeing him in the minors, none of his pitches other than the splitter seemed to be a threat to me. It hasn't had the same shape at all in the majors. I don't know what to think.

I guess I'm wondering if the split is what's special how hard would it be to tweak the 4 seam to maybe a sinker and the slider to maybe a sweeper at this point in his career

[Enscheff]

I haven’t heard of guys changing the spin axis at the MLB level, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be done. Waldreps issue is he can’t generate much spin, so nothing he changes can make the ball move much more.

I also haven’t heard of guys at the MLB level increasing spin, but maybe it can happen? Definitely not something I would put too much hope in though.