Grading Schwellenbach's Stuff

[Enscheff]

Schwellenbach made his debut, and early on he looked really good by the eye test. My old grading metrics are several years old and likely out of date for modern pitchers, so I'm going to do this a little differently and rank each aspect of his pitches compared to all pitchers who have thrown at least 10 of that pitch this season. Rather than using positive and negative values for movement, I'm going to follow Baseball Savant's convention of Vertical Movement without Gravity (which can be negative if the spin actually creates additional sink), and ARM/GLV direction for horizontal movement. Then rather than trying to grade based on standard deviation, I'll just give the rank compared to all qualifying peers.

FA: 95.9 mph (93 of 498), 12.3" Vert (454 of 498), 5.1" Arm (392 of 498)

This FA falls into that group of fastballs that used to confuse people 20 years ago when a guy threw hard and they couldn't figure out why he still got smashed. The movement profile on this FA is definitely an issue, and he should not be throwing it 34% of the time.

CU: 79.9 mph (92 of 203), -4.7" Vert (173 of 203), 10.3" Glv (80 of 203)

The CU is also nothing to write home about, and it has more slurve action than the traditional downer action we see from guys like Fried.

SL: 86.8 mph (199 of 402), -5.1" Vert (10 of 402), 5.2" Glv (172 of 402)

This is the pitch he will have to rely on to get guys out, and he should probably be throwing it more than 19% of the time. So far it's his only plus pitch.

FC: 91.8 mph (30 of 206), 8.8" Vert (141 of 206), 1.8" Glv (118 of 206)

A cutter with good velocity and mediocre movement is something that can be relied upon. I expect it will tunnel pretty well with that slider, and it will also help the 4-seamer play up.

CH: 83.9 mph, -1.5 Vert (14 of 313), 8.3" Arm (308 of 313)

This is a very interesting change, and it's too bad he only threw it 5 times. It seems to move like a traditional splitter with straight down movement that must appear to fall of the table. This pitch has the potential to be a real problem for hitters.

Overall: I think what stood out on TV was the velocity and the good slider, and I commented on the slider during the game thread. It is definitely his best pitch. The FA needs to be spotted and used more sparingly while the FC and SL carry the majority of the workload. The curve doesn't seem to bring much to the table, and it's really just a slower slider, so like most pitchers who throw both there isn't really a point. If he can dial in that change the batter will have a very hard time deciding what to swing at between the slider and change.

Without the change he's pretty much a slider specialist out of the BP. With the change at full strength he can probably turn the lineup over a couple times and be a solid 3/4. As always, elite command can make all these pitches play up, but it's too early to tell on that.

[bravesfanMatt]

I was also intrigued by the change when I looked at the data the next day.. I can't remember exactly, but he either only threw it 5 times to one batter or 5 times only to left handed hitters. But it seemed to be a better pitch not to throw more. Could be a catcher not knowing his arsenal well enough yet.. not sure.

I think cutter/change/slider 80% of the time could produce good results for him when on. like you said spot a velo fastball up and in to change the hitters eye level occasionally, but then live by cutting and sinking..

[atl717]

My initial impression was similar, #3 or # 4 starter or a good late inning reliever. I would like to see him throw a 2 seamer.

[Enscheff]

My initial impression was similar, #3 or # 4 starter or a good late inning reliever. I would like to see him throw a 2 seamer.

I feel like all guys who don't get rise on their FA should switch to a 2 seamer. It literally can't be any worse than a 4 seamer with no rise.

[bravesfanMatt]

yes, I could see a 2 seamer (not a sinker) could play well with his mix.. maybe better than his cutter since that is just a harder slider that doesn't move as much. Cutter could keep RHH honest knowing if they lean out to get the slider/change then they are getting sawed off with his cutter.

[cajunrevenge]

From what I have read his cutter is new. I am optimistic given how advanced he is despite so little game experience. I think his stuff can play up if he has a good pitching IQ. His pitches all come in at various speeds. Keep hitters from dialing in on one speed of pitch.

[Enscheff]

I didn't get to see this game, but it looks like he had a rough outing. Was he all over the place? Or was the 4 seamer just getting destroyed?

[bravesfanMatt]

I didn't get to see this game, but it looks like he had a rough outing. Was he all over the place? Or was the 4 seamer just getting destroyed?

I haven't looked at the data and only watched a few innings.. but what I saw was he came out and busted a few 4 seamers at 97ish and TDA and him decided it was good.. it got destroyed shortly there after.

[Enscheff]

Yeah, 97 with that movement profile is going to be hittable without pinpoint control. It's 2024 and the Braves should know know by now that a flat 97 in the hitting area is going to get handled.

[Coredor]

I didn’t watch all of his start because I was distracted with stuff going on but it seemed like he was getting ahead and having trouble putting batters away.

[Tapate50]

Reminds me of Fried coming up initially with the 4 seam

[GovClintonTyree]

He looked good last night. I like these pitch data analyses. However, I think command - putting the pitch exactly where you mean to - does more than help good pitches play up. I think it's an equal partner with stuff.

I always roll my eyes when the latest stuff guy comes up and gets rocked. You've just got to have command in addition to stuff. Waldrep couldn't find home plate at Florida...now folks are surprised and disappointed that he can't in Atlanta?

We saw Schpencer leave some fastballs middle-middle, particularly in his second outing that got tattooed...not saying that wasn't because they were flat and straight but the command was poor. He improved significantly in start three and was real good last night. And if (not saying it is a finished product) the four-seamer is just not going to be competitive - he's got about six other pitches in his bag.

Lot to like here.

[cajunrevenge]

Fangraphs has him throwing a Fastball, cutter, sinker, slider, splitter, and curveball. Thats just ridiculous for the amount of experience he has. His fastball rates very bad. His cutter slightly below average. Slider and curveball rate good and his Sinker and Splitter rate very highly. This is just based on the results from those pitches not a rating of the quality of the pitches. The sinker and splitter are his least thrown pitches though. I have to assume they play up because he doesnt throw them often. Why he is throwing the 4 seam fastball when he has the cutter and sinker I dont understand. He rates at the top in Chase% so I dont know if thats because the hitters are bad or he if its something Swellenbach is doing right to get them to chase pitches out of the strike zone. All in all I like what we have seen so far. Despite our overall great pitching that 5th and 6th spot in the rotations have just been automatic losses for us. We are winning games started by our big 3 at a very high rate and about 50/50 when Morton starts. If Swellenbach pitches well enough we can just win half his starts thats a huge boost to the team. I wonder what they are going to do to limit his innings though. He has already surpassed IP from last year. I wonder if they will swap him to the pen in a couple months. Maybe when AJSS gets back.

[Slippyjms]

Despite our overall great pitching that 5th and 6th spot in the rotations have just been automatic losses for us. We are winning games started by our big 3 at a very high rate and about 50/50 when Morton starts. If Swellenbach pitches well enough we can just win half his starts thats a huge boost to the team. I wonder what they are going to do to limit his innings though. He has already surpassed IP from last year. I wonder if they will swap him to the pen in a couple months. Maybe when AJSS gets back.

I mean I think they just play it by ear. We likely will switch back to a 6 man rotation another couple times during the season. There isn't a single pitcher in the rotation that doesn't need some type of inning protection. Everyone knows about Sale Lopez and the kids but Morton's also 40 and Fried missed half of last year with elbow trouble. A lot of our current relievers can be optioned if needed allowing opportunities for extra rest.

We also have a much weaker schedule in the second half. Assuming we can plug our other holes by then there will probably be plenty of opportunities for spot starts.

All this being said as long as SS is pitching well I think the Braves will continue to run him out there. That's always been the MO for the team.

[cajunrevenge]

Schwellenbach just had TJ surgery and there is generally a 5 year window after TJ where a pitcher is generally healthier. I wonder if that factors into letting Schwellenbach get a huge increase in innings.


I get the reasons for the 6 man rotation but it's hard to compete going 6 deep like that.

[jpx7]

I get the reasons for the 6 man rotation but it's hard to compete going 6 deep like that.

Is it, though?

[CyYoung31]

Schwellenbach just had TJ surgery and there is generally a 5 year window after TJ where a pitcher is generally healthier. I wonder if that factors into letting Schwellenbach get a huge increase in innings.


I get the reasons for the 6 man rotation but it's hard to compete going 6 deep like that.

It’s hard when I go 6 deep in your mom.

[cajunrevenge]

All this time I had no idea you were a necrophiliac.

[Mad Dog Murph]

All this time I had no idea you were a necrophiliac.

It explains so much

[Hulavol]

Hell that’s nothing. There are no scientific words for some of the things Cy has done.

For example, he was at spring training one year and got banned from Disney for raping a 60,000 year old pile of dinosaur bones at animal kingdom…. Strange part was the fossil started smiling and humming moon river