Pache trade
- Thread starter TheBravos
- Start date
the fool-proof logic here is that the Indians aren't aware Pache can't hit yet...and THAT'S why he's being kept on the bench, so the Braves can fool the Indians!
duh. how can you not see that? clear as day.
I’m with you on Waters. I’m thinking Riley 2.0 with him.
No. Pache is our #1 prospect and very high in the top 100. As prospect status goes...he’s pretty much near or at his peak value.
No. We are not trying to “fool” Cleveland. Cleveland would have hopes he reaches his ceiling (which would be a incredible player). He could also just turn out to be peak Ender with a strong arm.
As good as he is, there are kinks in his Armour...enough so, that given our situation and “if” the right move (with Cleveland for example), came along...AA might just do it.
I think their actions showed they aren’t sure what’s going to happen. If he makes it past this week...we will keep him. I don’t think that’s a given anymore. That’s just my opinion.
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
They prefer to be called Native Americans.
Tapate50
Well-known member
He may swing at a ton, but his bat on ball skills are supposed to be really really good.
Waters rode a AA BABIP of .436 to an OPS of .847, and a AAA BABIP of .429 to an OPS of .710.
Needless to say, those BABIPs are insanely lucky, and if that amount of luck results in those modest results...I worry.
Conversely, Pache has much more reasonable MiLB BABIPs resulting in more reasonable stat lines. In my mind there's no doubt who is the better prospect, and it isn't particularly close. Pache's reasonable floor is a RHH Ender (so minus the platoon advantage) with room for much more, whereas Waters screams 4th OFer or AAAA player to me...now watch that projection bite me in 5 years when Waters turns into Bobby Abreu.
Last edited:
NYCBrave
Well-known member
Cleveland is a World Series contender this year and them giving up an all star pitcher to acquire a hitter who arguably won't even help them this year doesn't make much sense.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Waters finally found a level that challenged him: his first tour of AAA at age 21.
Seems a bit harsh.
Even adjusted for luck, his performance was better than most his age would manage.
I'm not super high on either of those guys, Pache or Waters. I'd trade either for the perfect get, but I no longer think the big trade is gonna happen.
Agreed. Pache is clearly the better prospect at this point. Pache is extremely safe bet to at least be a great OF who is league average with the bat. That’s insanely valuable for at least through arb 2.
Waters on the other hand is about as risky as it gets. Huge K rates and not great walk rates. Riding an insanely high BABIP. His tools are loud but there is tremendous risk with him. No doubt.
It's not just in your mind for people looking at things with both eyes open - that's not only the industry consensus, most reasonable fans who dabble in the numbers the least bit get that too.
The big - actually huge - disconnect for the typical fan is that they can't wrap their minds around just how much better the competition is when a player moves from AAA or AA to the majors. They never understand why a kid that hit .330 in AA has trouble hitting .280 once they get to The Show. They can't fathom why a Folty/Newk/Wright/Touki/Wilson/Anderson is considered "successful" by those more numbers-savvy if they turn into a solid MOR Pitcher for several years.
The "average fan" - even a lot of folks that post here - think that "Aces" and All-Stars grow on trees and are drafted every single year, and that will never change because they don't have (or want to spend) the time digging deeply enough to realize that that's simply not the case. It should be easy to make folks understand - go back and look at what posters here expected from Dansby when we stole him and see how many people are perfectly happy with the way he's played since getting over being rushed - starting-caliber MLB SSs with legitimate offensive upside don't grow on trees whether they were drafted 1.1 or not.
Last edited:
Honest question here. Since Waters has repeated his insanely high BABIP for at least two years, what would you project his BABIP to be in MLB? There is certainly some luck involved, but repeating it at two levels seems to suggest that it is not all luck. Is there some characteristic in his swing that would project a higher than typical BABIP going forward?
It seems a bit lazy to chalk it up entirely to luck without some further analysis. How many times does he have to do it before we want to look for other potentially contributing factors.
BABIP is related to batted ball profile. If a guy has higher exit velo that helps. If a hitter hits to all fields, that helps. If he’s fast that helps. But MLB avg is basically .300. Some guys can sustain .330-.350 based on certain batted ball profiles. But nobody can sustain anything near .400 for several seasons. It just can’t happen. He was at .430 last year. Take it down to a still very good .370 and his numbers are less outstanding.
I like Waters as a prospect. Not as much a Pache, but still. He’s really young so he’s got time to develop. If Krate comes down, BB rate goes up with better pitch recognition. He’s gonna mature physically obviously, so more hard hut balls are gonna go for HRs.
He’s got a chance to be very good. But he also has a chance to swing and miss like Riley is currently doing and not amount to much. He’s a high upside/low floor guy IMO. Where Pache is a high upside/ high floor guy IMO. Just my opinion.
I like Waters as a prospect. Not as much a Pache, but still. He’s really young so he’s got time to develop. If Krate comes down, BB rate goes up with better pitch recognition. He’s gonna mature physically obviously, so more hard hut balls are gonna go for HRs.
He’s got a chance to be very good. But he also has a chance to swing and miss like Riley is currently doing and not amount to much. He’s a high upside/low floor guy IMO. Where Pache is a high upside/ high floor guy IMO. Just my opinion.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Eh. I mean he isn't a corner OF prospect. He is a CF prospect playing the corners bc he has Pache blocking him. He plays good D with good speed.
I think people are sleeping on him. The last FG write up was pretty dang positive about scouts raved about his bat to ball ability.
FG write up https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-27-prospects-atlanta-braves/ :
Waters’ initial rise to top 50 prospect status was surprising to some, coming as it did by the end of his first full season. He’s got 55-to-60 grade tools across the board and always hit in high school. Some teams were and remain turned off by his loud personality, while others just see him as a colorful guy. The other concern is his aggressive approach at the plate, which didn’t give him any trouble until his taste of Triple-A late in 2019, and some scouts and analysts think it could be a problem in the big leagues.
That’s the soft part of the profile, but the indicators both to the eye (scouts rave about the swing, bat speed, and feel at the plate) and in the stats point to elite ability to manipulate the bat. One club told us his percentage of balls hit with 95 mph-plus exit velo and a launch angle between 10 and 30 degrees (i.e. hard hit line drives and fly balls) was in the top 3% of the entire minor leagues. And that comes as a 20-year-old in the upper minors who has plus speed and a plus arm, and who profiles in center field, with other variables that could allow you to keep rounding up from there. The happy version of this story is Starling Marte, and as soon as the middle of 2020; the sad version includes multiple years stuck in neutral at the big league level, trying to argue that the upside and defense makes up for the big strikeout rate. We’re leaning more to Marte at this point.
Last edited:
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
It's MLB in 2020 -- no one is "untouchable." And while Pache is an excellent prospect, he's not a Chipper/Andruw/Heyward/Acuna generational talent. So, sure, it's conceivable that if an extraordinary young player with multiple years of control at a position of needs come available that AA might consider including Pache in a deal. You can't rule anything out.
But in the unlikely event Pache is traded (either this week or in the off-season), the fact that he spent a few games on the bench in the big leagues won't have anything to do with it.
But in the unlikely event Pache is traded (either this week or in the off-season), the fact that he spent a few games on the bench in the big leagues won't have anything to do with it.
that's fine, but he's likely not an elite or even great defender in CF, and if a player is going to strikeout that much, they need to hit for more power for it to be worth it. otherwise the bat will be awful.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Yes, he is no finished product.
OcalaBrave
Spring Training Invitee
Andy Marte - He ranked among BA's Top 100 Prospects four times—as high as No. 9 overall and three times in the top 15 from 2004-2006
Wilson Betemit - No. 5 prospect in 2002.
No prospect is a sure thing.
Wilson Betemit - No. 5 prospect in 2002.
No prospect is a sure thing.
Saying Pache is a much better prospect than Waters is not saying Waters is a bad prospect. Water is a good prospect, there is no doubt. Pache is nearly untouchable, which isn’t the case with Waters at all.
Of course, prospects who are merely good still turn out to be great players sometimes. He could very well turn into Adam Eaton.
Of course, prospects who are merely good still turn out to be great players sometimes. He could very well turn into Adam Eaton.