Per Bill James website.
20)......
Up until this point, we've only encountered 3 Hall of Famers, one in each group of 10 - Jack Morris at #48, Catfish Hunter at #38, and Don Sutton at #23, as well as probably a couple more (C.C. Sabathia and Zack Greinke) that I'd say are likely to make it. From this point forward, though, we're shifting into the next gear, as we'll be pretty much looking at either current or (likely) future Hall of Famers, with a couple of cases (Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling) who are in the "I'm not sure what to make of their chances" bucket.
#20-John Smoltz
Best category: All Star Games (6th with 8), WAA (18th with 40.4)
Worst category: W-L% (58th with .579)
#19-Mike Mussina
Best category: WAA (10th with 48.7), WAR (11th with 82.8)
Worst category: ERA+ (28th with 123)
#18-Curt Schilling
Best category: K/BB Ratio (5th with 4.4), WAA (6th with 52.9)
Worst category: Games Started (52nd with 436)
I'm going to review Smoltz, Mussina, and Schilling together. They're a natural grouping, with key differences but a lot of similarities. The trio were direct contemporaries with Schilling and Smoltz debuting in 1988 and Mussina joining the majors 3 years later in 1991. They all enjoyed long, successful careers, ultimately retiring in 2007 (Schilling), 2008 (Mussina) and 2009 (Smoltz).
If you take that time frame (1988-2009), I believe there are 2 clear quartets/tiers of starting pitchers. The very elite (the "A+" group) would include Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez comprising one tier, and the next group down ("A" or "A-") would consist of Schilling, Mussina, Smoltz, and Smoltz's team mate, Tom Glavine (who I'll review shortly).
As to how to rank the 3....well, I think it's awful close. Several years ago in the Reader Posts section of this site, there was a poll conducted asking members to rank the three. 47 members voted, assigning each player a 1st place vote, a 2nd place vote, and a 3rd place vote. Those results are below, along with a "points" total that awards 3 points for a first place vote, 2 for a second place, and 1 for a third place:
Player
1
2
3
Points
Smoltz
19
15
13
100
Mussina
15
15
17
92
Schilling
13
17
17
90
In other words, pretty damn close all the way around. Those results would put the ranking at
Smoltz/Mussina/Schilling, while my ranking has it exactly the reverse, but I think it's razon-thin.
What does each one bring to the table?
I tried a little experiment, a little 3-man battle. I expanded the category review to 20, and then ranked Smoltz, Schilling, and Mussina in each one.
WAR
WAR7 (top 7 WAR)
All Star Games
Wins
W-L%
ERA
ERA+
Games Started
K/BB Ratio
WAR per 200 Innings Pitched
Wins Above Average (WAA)
JAWS
Complete Games
Shutouts
Saves
Innings Pitched
Strikeouts per 9 Innings Pitched
Walks per 9 Innings Pitched
Hits Allowed per 9 Innings Pitched
Home Runs Allowed per 9 Innings Pitched
I ranked each pitcher in each category. If he finished first, he got 3 points, and then 2 for second, and 1 for third, and then I tallied the points. Here are the results:
Player
1st
2nd
3rd
Points
Schilling
9
8
3
46
Mussina
6
8
6
40
Smoltz
5
4
11
34
Which, as it turns out, is the same order I have them in. But, in reality, I think there's very little separating them. Schilling was the first to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot, Mussina was 2nd, and Smoltz was third, but Smoltz went in right way, Mussina is in but took a few years, and Schilling close but still on the outside looking in, and I think we all know why.
I will always think of them together.
#17-Tom Glavine
Best category: All Star Games (3rd with 10)
Worst category: K/BB Ratio (185th with 1.74)
I mentioned Glavine in the post with the prior 3 (Schilling, Mussina, Smoltz) as he was in that 2nd tier of late 80's to late 00's pitchers. I broke him out from the other 3 as the only lefty and because he was a little different animal than the others. Unlike the other 3, Glavine did not have a very good K/BB ratio (185th out of 226 pitchers in the database). But still great in his own right.
Another category in which Glavine did not excel (although it was not a category I used in the methodology) is the fantasy-familiar category of WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched). Glavine is the only post-expansion (1961) Hall of Fame pitcher with a WHIP higher than 1.3.
I noticed some general similarities between Glavine and Jim Palmer (coming up shortly at #12). Both struck out around 5 hitters per 9 innings with walk rates around 3 per 9 innings, and therefore their K/BB ratios (around 1.7) were not really all that good. However, both were multi-season 20 game winners (Palmer 8 times, Glavine 5), and both did extremely well in Cy Young voting (Palmer won 3 awards, had 2 runner up finishes, a third-place finish and 2 fifth-place finishes, while Glavine won 2 with 2 runner up finishes and 2 third-place finishes). Like Palmer, I'm sure Glavine benefitted from being on a great team that provided him substantial offensive and defensive support, but he wasn't an innocent bystander. It took Glavine a few seasons to hit his stride, but from 1991 through the balance of his Braves seasons, he posted a 3.15 ERA, a 134 ERA+, and won two-thirds of his decisios. He was a quality pitcher, a durable pitcher, and was a key part of the team's success.
https://www.billjamesonline.com/the...50_years_-_part_xi_-_starting_pitchers_11-20/
I imagine Maddox will be top 5…
20)......
Up until this point, we've only encountered 3 Hall of Famers, one in each group of 10 - Jack Morris at #48, Catfish Hunter at #38, and Don Sutton at #23, as well as probably a couple more (C.C. Sabathia and Zack Greinke) that I'd say are likely to make it. From this point forward, though, we're shifting into the next gear, as we'll be pretty much looking at either current or (likely) future Hall of Famers, with a couple of cases (Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling) who are in the "I'm not sure what to make of their chances" bucket.
#20-John Smoltz
Best category: All Star Games (6th with 8), WAA (18th with 40.4)
Worst category: W-L% (58th with .579)
#19-Mike Mussina
Best category: WAA (10th with 48.7), WAR (11th with 82.8)
Worst category: ERA+ (28th with 123)
#18-Curt Schilling
Best category: K/BB Ratio (5th with 4.4), WAA (6th with 52.9)
Worst category: Games Started (52nd with 436)
I'm going to review Smoltz, Mussina, and Schilling together. They're a natural grouping, with key differences but a lot of similarities. The trio were direct contemporaries with Schilling and Smoltz debuting in 1988 and Mussina joining the majors 3 years later in 1991. They all enjoyed long, successful careers, ultimately retiring in 2007 (Schilling), 2008 (Mussina) and 2009 (Smoltz).
If you take that time frame (1988-2009), I believe there are 2 clear quartets/tiers of starting pitchers. The very elite (the "A+" group) would include Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez comprising one tier, and the next group down ("A" or "A-") would consist of Schilling, Mussina, Smoltz, and Smoltz's team mate, Tom Glavine (who I'll review shortly).
As to how to rank the 3....well, I think it's awful close. Several years ago in the Reader Posts section of this site, there was a poll conducted asking members to rank the three. 47 members voted, assigning each player a 1st place vote, a 2nd place vote, and a 3rd place vote. Those results are below, along with a "points" total that awards 3 points for a first place vote, 2 for a second place, and 1 for a third place:
Player
1
2
3
Points
Smoltz
19
15
13
100
Mussina
15
15
17
92
Schilling
13
17
17
90
In other words, pretty damn close all the way around. Those results would put the ranking at
Smoltz/Mussina/Schilling, while my ranking has it exactly the reverse, but I think it's razon-thin.
What does each one bring to the table?
I tried a little experiment, a little 3-man battle. I expanded the category review to 20, and then ranked Smoltz, Schilling, and Mussina in each one.
WAR
WAR7 (top 7 WAR)
All Star Games
Wins
W-L%
ERA
ERA+
Games Started
K/BB Ratio
WAR per 200 Innings Pitched
Wins Above Average (WAA)
JAWS
Complete Games
Shutouts
Saves
Innings Pitched
Strikeouts per 9 Innings Pitched
Walks per 9 Innings Pitched
Hits Allowed per 9 Innings Pitched
Home Runs Allowed per 9 Innings Pitched
I ranked each pitcher in each category. If he finished first, he got 3 points, and then 2 for second, and 1 for third, and then I tallied the points. Here are the results:
Player
1st
2nd
3rd
Points
Schilling
9
8
3
46
Mussina
6
8
6
40
Smoltz
5
4
11
34
Which, as it turns out, is the same order I have them in. But, in reality, I think there's very little separating them. Schilling was the first to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot, Mussina was 2nd, and Smoltz was third, but Smoltz went in right way, Mussina is in but took a few years, and Schilling close but still on the outside looking in, and I think we all know why.
I will always think of them together.
#17-Tom Glavine
Best category: All Star Games (3rd with 10)
Worst category: K/BB Ratio (185th with 1.74)
I mentioned Glavine in the post with the prior 3 (Schilling, Mussina, Smoltz) as he was in that 2nd tier of late 80's to late 00's pitchers. I broke him out from the other 3 as the only lefty and because he was a little different animal than the others. Unlike the other 3, Glavine did not have a very good K/BB ratio (185th out of 226 pitchers in the database). But still great in his own right.
Another category in which Glavine did not excel (although it was not a category I used in the methodology) is the fantasy-familiar category of WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched). Glavine is the only post-expansion (1961) Hall of Fame pitcher with a WHIP higher than 1.3.
I noticed some general similarities between Glavine and Jim Palmer (coming up shortly at #12). Both struck out around 5 hitters per 9 innings with walk rates around 3 per 9 innings, and therefore their K/BB ratios (around 1.7) were not really all that good. However, both were multi-season 20 game winners (Palmer 8 times, Glavine 5), and both did extremely well in Cy Young voting (Palmer won 3 awards, had 2 runner up finishes, a third-place finish and 2 fifth-place finishes, while Glavine won 2 with 2 runner up finishes and 2 third-place finishes). Like Palmer, I'm sure Glavine benefitted from being on a great team that provided him substantial offensive and defensive support, but he wasn't an innocent bystander. It took Glavine a few seasons to hit his stride, but from 1991 through the balance of his Braves seasons, he posted a 3.15 ERA, a 134 ERA+, and won two-thirds of his decisios. He was a quality pitcher, a durable pitcher, and was a key part of the team's success.
https://www.billjamesonline.com/the...50_years_-_part_xi_-_starting_pitchers_11-20/
I imagine Maddox will be top 5…
